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Friday, September 21, 2012

Round One Scorecard

As was to be expected, a poll on the debate held last night between Warren and Brown was out lightening quick. Kimball consulting had issued a press release on its findings within hours. Full details of the poll are suppose to be online sometime later today.

According to the press release, which you can find on a number of sites, including PR Newswire, of those polled: 50% of those polled thought Brown won; 40% thought Warren won; 6% thought it was a tie; and, 4% were undecided.

What lasting effect this debate and the others to come will have does remain to be seen. This isn't about the diehards who have decided. It is about that 8% +/- undecided. I do believe the debates will matter.  I expect by days end there will be one or two other polls about it, certainly by Monday.  

There have been thousands of opinions offered all ready.  Last look (about 5 A.M.) there were some 288 "stories" out there on the Internet, with comments from "readers" for some running into the hundreds.

Who actually "won"?  Ultimately that is for you to decide.  If you couldn't watch and were unable to record it, there are a number of sites were the complete video can be streamlined. 

I personally do not think either candidate scored a "knockout".  Neither did anything that has their respective core supporters pulling their hair. 

I have read the critiques from each party's faithful, and the same are pretty much along what one would expect.  Some assuming assessments out there about both candidates, which I don't buy into.

On a "must" score point system, out of ten, I give the edge to Brown 10 points to 9 points for Warren.  Make no mistake about, from a purely observational point of view, Warren did in fact do a good job.  But sticking with the boxing format, one key to the win was in fact style.

Warren seemed to be still relying on the Olympic format.  Trying to run up points simply by making contact, whether the "hits" were effective or not.  Good form, good presentation, technically correct, but ineffective on the counter-punch.

She had a script she used it.  It did her well, but her opponent was just a bit better.  Whether planned or not, she waited way too long to bring out the Democrat vs. Republican theme.

You may not have liked the answers from Brown, you may not agree with them, but he was more effective.  The attempted roundhouse from Warren about the nut job from Oklahoma potentially becoming Chair of the oversight committee for "environmental" matters, resulted in the best soundbite of the whole debate coming from Brown:
“You’re not running against Jim Inhofe, you’re running against me.”
And it is in fact Sen. Scott Brown who Elizabeth Warren is running against.  Warren needs to walk a line going forward as to just who her target audience is.  I really don't she her converting anymore stray Democrats than the recent polls indicate.

Which party controls the Senate is in fact an issue.  Whether it is wise to continue to paint yourself as a party line Democrat is another matter.  Warren did nothing to dispel the belief that she will simply be a lock step party follower.

Neither party is 100% correct 100% of the time, or even 90% of the time.  I get the argument, I am going to be fighting for the middle class.  But what I also get is she will be fighting for the middle class solely based on the Democratic platform.

Brown effectively got in a number of shots about his bi-partisan voting record.  You can argue all you want about specific vote, on specific legislation, but you can't argue the actual percentages.  Even on what some describe as tough votes, his record is clear that he cross party lines more frequently than all most anyone in the Senate, and substantially more than the vast majority of Democrats.

When the shots were thrown about specific matters, they were, in my mind, were either effectively deflected or met with a winning counter attack.

His Travelers Ins. retort (which I don't agree with totally by the way), his "pipeline" snippet, to mention a few were very effective.

His performance was not superior to Warren's, just better.

I think he went to far with the Indian issue.  After his initial statements, and her rebuttal, had he simply stated, "fine, that's your reasoning, the simple solution is still to release the record." It would have been much more effective.

He also lost the chance at a knockout.  Many people have filled out the forms for employment, college admissions, student loans and a host of others with the "ancestory" boxes.  Those forms have criteria for which you are to apply.  I know, I have had to fill out similar forms.

It is fine to believe in family lore, it is okay to take pride in your heritage, it is entirely a different matter to check off a box you have no documentation to substantiate your claim other than what your mother told you.  We aren't talking about a recent high school grad here.  We are talking about a highly educated and highly intelligent individual, who at times most definitely made a claim repeatedly that she should have known better than to make.

Whether her employers actually hired her because of this or not isn't the only relevant point.  The fact that she choose to voluntarily do it is in fact relevant also.

A flaw in Brown's performance was he was too repetitive.  Something they both did really.  The constant "let's be clear" was a bit mind numbing from Warren, and the continual family stuff from Brown was also.

On the substance level.  Neither one of them shinned bright.  Warren needs to say more than I am going to go to Washington to fight for you.  Tell me exactly how you are going to do it, or give me something more than that (I have read the "position papers" by the way. I am talking about substance within the debate here okay).

Brown had least had the advantage of specific actions.  Again you might not agree with them, you might not like them, but they were there.  But substance was there more so than from Warren.

I could go on and on.  In the end everyone has their own take.  Feel free if you want to provide yours.  My opinion, this round goes to Brown by the above noted 10 to 9 score.

Special note/reminder if you care to comment.  Remember the rules of engagement for this blog.  Stay on topic, i.e. I don't want to hear about what Romney or Obama do or don't do.  This is about Warren and Brown and the debate.  You want to take a whack at either of them, feel free to do so but try and keep the mindless party rhetoric a a minimum please.

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