Four weeks from today, starting at 10:00 A.M. the special election will be held. I doubt most readers of this blog need reminding of that fact. I bet many are tired of hearing about it, but hear about it you will. A number of times.
The ideal scenario is a whopping turnout and a decisive victory. In today's day, a whopping turnout and a decisive victory aren't what they would have been 50 years ago, but significant numbers would be a nice indicator of public sentiment.
So what would those be. Well as to decisive, I think I addressed that in the past. A margin of 10% or more. Whopping, by today's standard I think would be in the range of the new school vote turnout, say 30%. Might have mentioned that previously also.
Not sure both those things will materialize here. In fact, the "whopping" turnout would send me back for a political prognostication class, but one I would be glad to take. I can see the margin materializing based on the various people I speak with, however that again is dependent on who actually does vote.
People expressing opinions simply do not equal voters. So we all simply sit it out let the election happen and wait.
There are several factors that have thrown this election in a flux on the prognostication front.
The first is the formation of the "pro" turbine group. How energized is it? How many voters will it bring to the polls? It needs to get people out to the polls. It will prove its effectiveness as a group based on whether its perceived position prevails and by the margin of victory.
The second is the emphasis on the present emphasis on compassion and caring argument from the "anti" turbine group. The group has a track record at what it can do at the polls. No point in denying it or ignoring it. How many voters can it bring to the polls? I think it can rely on a solid turnout from its base. How many additional voters does it need to insure a win? Well that actually depends on what the other group can do, and I can't figure that one out to be honest.
A close win by either candidate establishes only one thing, a continued divide.
There are a bunch of "ifs" relative to these groups respective affects and present tactics. Some of the obvious ones:
If you are pro turbine, if you believe if in compliance the turbines should run 24/7 you have but one perceived choice in the election.
If you are anti turbine, and if you believe the turbines should be shut down you also have but one perceived choice in the election.
If you are a candidate you may not want to be pigeonholed in that way, but let us acknowledge the reality that you have been. It is a sad reality. It does exist though. Too many people have this down as a turbine election. Too many people could care less about the individuals running, expect how they believe a candidate will deal with the turbines.
If you are of an opinion somewhere between those two points of view, good luck with your soul searching on who will accomplish your preferred resolution.
If you find some of the arguments made by both sides suspect, well I would submit you are a healthy skeptic. It means you are thinking.
If you are tired of this issue, you are not alone. Unfortunately it will not disappear any time soon, and that includes the time period after the September 9th election.
Enough for today.
Be safe.
You could have added- Out of frustration with the behavior of the group whose beliefs you share- you vote for the opposing candidate.
ReplyDeleteFor some, this election is hardly about choosing the best over-all BOH representative. But if an elected body is only able to act in accordance to predetermined regulations, the election ought to be about more than 'the' issue.
This election won't mend the divide. We'll just be lucky if 'Fairhaven Divided' will accept the truth of the count (no matter which way it ends,) and move on from there.