Odds and Ends

Here is the link for the stats breakdown on the post debate poll in the Mass. Senate race:

http://www.kimballpoliticalconsulting.com/KPC_Methodology_Survey_Results.pdf

I know, a tad after the fact but hey, better than after the election right?

Interesting breakdowns, but as always, every poll should be looked at with a very cautious eye.  Even the ones that favor your position or candidate.  It is going to be a tight race.  Next debate is set for October 1, 2012, I believe.

It is worth noting that last week Mayor Menino from Boston has endorsed Prof. Warren.  The most surprising thing about it is how long it took for him to do it.

The latest polls in this one have it a dead heat.

Also, there is an interesting piece I found on The Wall Street Journal site about the Massachusetts senate race.  Worth reading.  The simple fact is this race is getting some pretty heavy national exposure.  It also is getting some pretty heavy outside money.

Someone asked me how I felt about the recent polls elsewhere showing the chance of the Senate going GOP diminishing.  In the relative scheme of life, the main concern I have is not whether the senate is GOP or not, my concern is a divided House and Senate is just simply going to further entrench the gridlock in Washington.

I know many may disagree, but another two years of a three ring circus is not going to enable things to get better.  Again I will reference the Clinton years, and what the Congress and the President were forced to do.  The President and Congress had to work together and compromise.  The Republican controlled Congress could not blame the inability to get something passed because the the other branch didn't pass it.  It also knew that it had to in fact deal with the President simply because of his veto power.

Clinton was up to the task with dealing with a GOP Congress.  Obama may or may not be.  I tend to think he is not.  But the stark reality was there was no other option for Clinton but to deal with Congress and vice versa.  They had to work together.

If we end up with divided control in the House and Senate, the main show under the big tent is going to be just more of the same.  You know it and I know it. I will tell you right now, if the prospects looked like there could be a Democratic regain of the House, I would be stating the same thing for a one party control of Congress.

The log jam has to break. If it doesn't because of some planned action, it will eventually as a result of the pressure behind it building up to the point of bursting.

This country is so polarized right now, with the fringe elements of both parties dictating too much of what the "platforms" should be.  If you think about, really think about, such an arrangement allows a by-pass of the fringes, by being able to craft realistic policy that will allow the more moderate elements to reach across aisles to compromise.  Again, it allows the President to push for things he wants because both he and Congress know he has the veto power.  

Whether you liked Clinton or not as a President, he was a master at the arrangement.  Did he get everything he wanted, no.  Did he manage to shape the legislation in a manner to his liking, yes.  Obama may have the "Tea Party" to deal with but Clinton managed with the "Contract with America".

The main arguments against this comes from the "all or nothing " approach.  Well if everyone keeps insisting they want it all their way, we are all going to end up with nothing.

In 2012 we are hearing that the worse is over.  Things are slowly bouncing back.  I seem to recall the same pronouncements over the last three years.  The climb back folks is a very steep and treacherous one.  The one absolute is the fact that we cannot continue along the same path.

Putting the cart before the horse, the next mid-term elections will be a hoot.  Proceeding under the assumption, strong probability really, that Obama wins re-election, slow and steady stays the course isn't going to go over well with the voters two years from now.

It seems clear that the presidential election poll trends continue to confirm the fact that the race is all but over.  There are still the four debates, but historically, it seems highly unlikely the projected outcome will change solely as a result of the debates.  Unless the poll modules are as whacked out as there were a couple of elections ago, there doesn't seem to be any other outcome.

Just as unlikely is the chance of the Democrats regaining the House.  No one except the party leadership seems to be seeing that as an outcome.  The consensus seems to be a loss of 6 to 8 seats by the Republicans, which still puts them in control of the House.

Trends in the Senate races seem to indicate the possibility of a similar split as exists now.  While there is still a lot of time for some things to change, the absolute best case for the Republicans now appears to be a 51 - 49 split (all scenarios include the 2 Independents siding with the Democrats).  There is more of a chance at 50 - 50 split, but I wouldn't count on it.  The high end seems to be a 53 - 47 split in favor of the Democrats, although I am going to wait a few more weeks before making any "predictions".

One interesting wild card seems to be the Maine race.  While the independent still has a solid 8% lead, it has slipped down from double digits recently.  Changing the mind of 8% of the voters might be improbable but for the trend.  It is an interesting race politically.  There is also a Democrat running who by all accounts has no chance but is expected to siphon off a whole lot of votes for from the Independent.

To top it off, you have Republican groups running ads to support the Democrat to try and siphon off even more votes from the Independent.

You can go dizzy looking at all the stats and possibilities.

The pudding does seem to be setting though, and it looks like more of the same for dessert.

You can sense a certain amount of fatalism setting in with people over the presidential election.  You can hear the tones of it setting in the news reports and during the opinion shows.  After the first debate, I think you will hear it loud and clear.

But that is today's opinion, based on yesterday's polls, which will continue to change each day going forward.

Locally, well there isn't a whole lot to say at this point.  The usual rumors about the usual and some unusual suspects making plans for April.  I have been tempted to do some stuff on this, but it is just way too early, taking into account the November elections.

I will just say I anticipate another lively election season.