Ripples and Ruffles

It is becoming increasing clear that Romney's last chance will be the Presidential debates.  In fact, if the trends keep going as they are he may very well need a knock-out performance, which isn't likely against Obama.  While the popular vote is still fairly close (3.6% on average), movement in needed battle ground states isn't happening all that favorably.

The congressional contests are the ones everyone, with a passion let's call it, should be getting worked up over.  It seems a pretty universal consensus that the House will remain with a GOP majority.  While consensus does not equal certainty, it would take something earth shattering for that to not to happen.

But to shake the earth today isn't necessarily as hard as it was say just twenty year ago, and to shatter it takes just a bit more of a rattle.  While Romney might not be able to knock out Obama, an Obama knockout of Romney could create a ground swell.  It would need to be pretty significant blow; unlikely , but not impossible though.

The Senate, well as we here in Massachusetts know all to well, it is up for grabs.  Right now, with what are considered 7 toss up spots throughout the nation, many are hedging their bets as to which party prevails.  It will be close, and our senate race will in fact be one of the deciding factors.  A new Kimball poll narrows the margin to a very slight lead for Senator Brown over Elizabeth Warren.

The key to remember is the independent voter, who even in the Kimball is seen as leaning substantially in favor of Brown.  Warren needs the "independents", who favor Brown by 18%.  A big turn out, means a bunch of independents.

Even more surprisingly, she does not pull ahead in any age group until the 50+. But for metro Boston, she wouldn't even be close (according to the poll).  There are a lot of pluses and minuses to get out of this by both camps.  How right it turns out to be will be determined in time.

Interesting piece in The Boston Globe.  Seems I am not the only one who things Warren's ads have been costing her.

Anyway, for the time being, everyone gets to continue to talk about a close race.

If you like to pour over the data for these things here is the link to the Kimball results.

The fact of the matter being, every senate seat does really matter as to which party ends up in control.

A GOP House and Senate with a Democrat in the White House is not out of the realm.  It is a concept I hear more people speak about than you might think, not only as to what might happen, but what they would like to see happen.

It would be by less than veto proof margins.  It would do away with the excuse that nothing gets done because the other side is blocking passage.  It would force compromise because it would mean that for something to pass it would need consensus.  I would require bridges to be built across the aisle.  It would, believe it or not, relegate the extremes of both parties to the side.  

You might not see it, but the potential is there and history shows examples of such arrangements working rather well.

On another front, in The Standard Times, Steve Urbon's piece today brings to light another union issue. Where the Chicago teachers' strike has national implication because the outcome will most definitely have an affect on similar situations throughout the country, a longshoremen strike will have an immediate effect  over everyday life.

This one should definitely be of concern for everyone.

Both the teacher's strike and the potential port work stoppage should be actually. Change ruffles feathers.  While change for the simple purpose of changing accomplishes nothing, the failure to recognize the need ton change things eventually results in collapse.  

In the The Standard Times Our View today, it is noted:

No doubt that New Bedford's officials, taxpayers and members of the New Bedford Educators Association, which represents this city's schoolteachers, will keep a close eye on the Chicago strike as the NBEA enters a second year without a new contract.

I don't have a working knowledge of the Illinois law that was passed last March I believe seemingly making many of the issues in dispute about evaluation mandatory.  I assume the fight is over how to implement, rather than implementation of an evaluation process.  I understand the job security issue, and while I am not in total agreement with the union, I understand it.  I don't get the raise issue, because it seems to me a city expected to be running a deficit in the billions for its schools can ill afford the raises offered.  

I don't get a whole lot anymore.  What I do get is the inkling that this one particular strike is going to have ripple effects for years to come.  Far reaching ones.