Monday Surprise

The one draw back of changing the clocks.  I may gain an hour, but it doesn't equate into an hour of sleep.  Oh well.

I am going to be interested in hearing about everyone's experience at the polls on Tuesday.  How long was your wait?  What time did you go?  Experience any problems?

Let me know.  If you aren't from Fairhaven, or have a story to share from someone else in our area, I would like to hear it.

The more I hear and read about early voting, the more intrigued, I am about the concept.  It is a procedure I both like and have great reservations about.  The reservations:  primarily I think it starts too early in some places.  A quick read found one state with it available 46 days in advance of the election, several with it starting 28 days from the election.

But hey, it is what it is.  I am not opposed to it.  Anything that can bolster participation, I am all for  it.

Some of those lines though, wow.  There is got to be a better way.

Based on the lawsuits being filed over the lines and "delays" apparently the early voting process isn't what some consider fair.

Not going to get into that one, other than to say while I am all for anything that can bolster participation, I will qualify that by saying "anything reasonable".   I don't buy into the voter suppression stuff.  Sorry.

Technically, here in Massachusetts, we don't have early voting.  You can request an absentee ballot for cause, and the process is very much utilized as much as a matter of convenience by some, as an actual need by others.  The rest of us non-absent voters stand in line, have always stood in line.  Sometimes with little or no waiting, at other times for too long.

Is there voter suppression in Massachusetts because we do not have early voting?

Is it voter suppression because the period is only ten days?  If it were 28 days, and you still had the long lines on the last day, is it still voter suppression?

I don't know what the answer is.  My thought, a solid week of voting, everywhere.  Make it uniform (which you could for a federal election). That will do away with everyone's gripe.  If you can't figure out when and how to vote over a one week period, you probably shouldn't be voting in the first place.

So who is going to win?

I don't know.  Looking at the polls for the individual swing states, it statistically looks like Obama will win re-election.

The ad to run in The Washington Times today from the Admirals and Generals endorsing Romney might have some effect in Virginia due to the the military bases,  but I am not sure what influence it will have in any other swing state.

It is all about the ground game at this point.  If the demographics and numbers mirror 2008, again Obama wins.  If they don't, then it is wide open.  I know, nothing profound there, but just a statement of reality.

An interesting wild card, and I still think not realistic for Romney, is Pennsylvania.  The but here is that the serious polling from the ones available is a bit lacking.  Do not underestimate the draw on the "energy" issue in some areas of the state.  There is are a whole lot of shale/natural gas deposits.  As "clean energy" as you may be or want the country to be, those deposits equate to jobs and money for areas in that state that haven't seen the same economic rebound as say the autoworkers in Ohio.

I wouldn't be counting on the electoral votes from Pennsylvania if I were Romney, but if he pulls it off, it makes Ohio less than crucial.  The Democrats know that, and despite the protestations that it is a desperation move by Romney to campaign there, it makes sense.

There is a shot.  I wouldn't put it in the 50/50 category based on the data I get to see, but there are a ton of polls out there that I don't get to see.  None of us do.

I think it is a bit unrealistic to think that there wouldn't be a surprise state or two.  I just don't know the state, or who is going to get surprised.

Enough for today folks.  Take care and be safe.