Clear sailing in stormy seas

Well it seems I could have stayed home last night and watched the candidate's night live, or so I was told.  Not the same thing for these type of events. Besides, I probably wouldn't have stayed awake long enough to make it to the question and answer sessions.

The proceedings started out with unopposed candidates being given some time to address the community.  Then, as is the course as of late, the races were presented per order of the ballot. Candidates were given time to speak, and after all candidates in all the races did so, the Q & A started.

The turbines were an recurring theme. So was WindWise.  Pretty much hand in hand.  Quite frankly I am not personally sure that the strategy of using WindWise and the turbines, either in a positive or negative manner is to anyone's benefit.  

Let us start with the concept of who is receiving support from WindWise and the anti-turbine contingent.  From a purely political pundit review, who do you think is going to receive the support?  It isn't going to be the incumbents most perceived to be against their point of view is it.

In contested elections with two candidates, one painting the other with a broad brush like that isn't by itself legitimate.  Listen to what is said, read between the lines and then decide whether any candidate is in someone or some group's pocket.  

Enough on this particular sidebar.

Some interesting questions in the selectman's race.  There were the standard what are you going to do and how you going to do it stuff.  There were a few specific points though. The challenger was questioned about tax problems.  The incumbent was questioned about a letter sent to RISD, and some past issues with various state disciplines.  

I will leave most of this for you to judge as to whether the answers actually dispel the implications of the questions.  But the same should be vetted by you the voter.  

I wasn't too clear about the RISD letter.  Neither will I comment on its contents without seeing it.  Presumably there is going to be a press piece next week in The Fairhaven Neighborhood News, at least that is what I gathered from the statements made by the editor when asking the question last night.

The incumbent apparently sent the letter.  There appear to be written statements from the other two members of the board disavowing any involvement with the letter. That to me raises some issues; not the least of which is that the members of the board should be addressing this matter as a board.

It would seem to me that if opening mail merits debate and time at a meeting, sending mail out might be a bit more meritorious.

The saddest part about this election is going to be the turnout.  It is unfortunately the saddest component in every election.  As excited as everyone was with a turnout over 30% for the new school debt exclusion, it was in the reality of numbers, anemic. Last year's general election was consider a large turnout in the above 20%.  Seriously.

This election isn't going to be decided by what people truly want.  It is going to be decided by how many people stay home.  

I keep hammering that point, but the nail was set long ago.  

Anyhow, given the expected turnout, I will not be betting on change.  Low turnouts have a tendency to favor the incumbents.  While that concept has been changing over the past decade, it hasn't changed enough to warrant a shifting in the prediction module.

Mind you there are certain factors that would lead one to hedge some bets, especially with the right odds, but since you can't bet on elections, that is the conventional wisdom.  Nonetheless, with dwindling turnouts, small core groups willing to mobilize and vote in blocks also have more sway on outcomes.  

If by some stretch of the imagination though the turnout breaks 20% or gets close to it, well all bets are off.

Okay, as a reminder, the last day to see the candidates in a forum style setting will be next week, Wednesday, at West Island.  Unless there is a revamp of the procedure, the people actually ask the questions.  That one holds some real potential from a viewing perspective.  Odds are even if it is taped, there won't be enough air time for it to matter a heck of a lot, except in precinct 5 and more specifically on the island.  

That being said, no one should underestimate that fact.

Truth be told, if you could bank on everyone who you speak with actually going out to vote, I would be very confident in giving you pretty detailed predictions right now.  When you are estimating 8 out of 10 people, more actually, won't show up at the polls, you would be shooting yourself in the foot to simply base it on the word on the street.  

Truth be told, there are clear choices in this election.  The only thing you have to figure out is which candidate to choose, then hope enough people who actually go and vote have made the same choice.

Enough on everything for today.  Be safe.