Forecasting as we all know is more an art form as it is any pure science. At least when one expands both the time period and distance covered.
For example, two days ago we were told to brace for lots of snow. Trying to do my own forecast as to how much to brace, I checked the NWS first thing this morning, next my weather apps, and last but not least our local version of the NWS, westislandweather.com.
At least as of this morning, the brace needed seems to be more of an ace bandage rather that a full metal attachment.
We beat the heck out of weather people for being "wrong" so often. What we forget many times is the prediction is given at a particular time based on information available, subject to numerous variables that can alter the path a course of a storm. When done correctly, one cannot fault a forecast.
The issue isn't/shouldn't necessarily be with the long range forecast. All the hype and hoopla is another story though. We all get caught up in it. We feed of of it.
The forecasters have become part sales men and women. They have too. The ratings game you know. There is also a key component. No one wants to be wrong. Better to err on the side of caution and miscall a string of blizzards of the year, decade, century, than to miscalling one that actually happens.
I get it. When your long range predictions can be set off course by even the slightest change in wind speed or direction, caution is actually a good thing. One week out I get it. Three days out in I get it. Even 24 hours out I can understand it.
As long as you provide all the relevant info, throw in the appropriate caveats and are looking at the constantly changing information, I can accept the hype and hoopla.
Forecasting is not an exact science. It is something that uses scientific principals to attempt to chart out what may happen in the future. The closer you are to that future however, the better the forecast should be. Patterns, trends, hard data, not to mention various computer modules available, should all work to firming that up.
So hopefully by the 6:00 evening news we will have a good forecast for tomorrow.
We all are forecasters in certain things aren't we? Through everything in the mix, and things still can be a tad difficult to predict. When that happens, I just go into my junk drawer and pull out my cracked crystal ball.
Anyway, enough about forecasts. Hopefully you all get the picture clear enough.
Be safe.
Monetary resources and expenses are unpredictable and change like the wind too. That's why one can't make an accurate prediction or long term plan.
ReplyDeleteInteresting observation-
ReplyDeleteIt's not only that the same amount of something costs more today than it did in the past. It's actually that less of something now costs more. Package sizes are not only being reduced, but the cost of the smaller package is more than what you paid for the larger size. Insurance companies among other service providers are not charging more for the same coverage you have, they are charging more for less coverage.
It's going to end sometime. The systems are collapsing.