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Saturday, October 20, 2012

Nearly all over and starting over

So the very first step to seeing a casino in our area, the one herald as a great deal for everyone involved, the determined as meeting the needs of the area, the tribe, the state, has been tossed out by the federal government.  

Back to square one, on the money issue anyway.  

It seems the compact worked out between the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and the Tribe, despite both parties touting the great deal worked out, wasn't worth the paper it was written on.  Apparently Massachusetts is being to greedy in the amount of money it wants from the tribe, despite the fact that the tribe itself didn't feel that way.  

We were asking to much, even though we were asking for less than the commercial licensees will pay.  

There are several states that have a mix of tribal and commercial casinos.  A number of states that get a cut of some of the revenue, but none that seem to get a "flat tax" on all revenue.  


Here's an easy solution to this problem.  Forget about the tribe.  Award the the third license to a commercial entity, and deal with the potential for a fourth, if and when.  You couldn't stop a casino on "tribal land" but you and the tribe would still have to negotiate a compact.

In the meantime, you won't devalue the commercial licenses any further, and you would be getting revenue from three entities in the intervening years it is going to take for any tribal casino to start up.

You got to shake your head a bit over this whole process.  You really do.  A negotiated agreement, determined by the parties to be fair, requiring that one party pay its agreed to  fair share, isn't fair.  You can slam down another nail in the coffin for seeing gambling coming anywhere near the South Coast.

In fact, you might have just seen the perfect excuse for not ever having one down this way that those who don't want one down this way were looking for.  

Moving one ...

Monday night makes or breaks the Presidential election for the candidates.  The last debate.  

Romney needs a clear win.  Like any title fight, the unwritten rule is a draw foes to the title holder.  It is clear that the momentum shift after the first debate has leveled off, and also the effect of the second debate has put Obama on at least equal ground in the polls, and with a slight lead in some.

As I have been saying, the popular vote overall isn't coming into play.  It is the vote in the swing states.  While a draw on Monday will keep the election close, it won't be enough for Romney to overcome the electoral college problem.  

Plain and simple, he needs Ohio.  I think he will take Florida and Virginia.  He needs at least one more of the singles digit electoral vote states of at least 6 votes.  But without Ohio, while it is possible for him to get the number of electoral votes he needs, it is unlikely.  

It is make or break time for both Romney and Obama.

The only wild card for either candidate, the one that usually puts the polls to shame, is the "energized" Ace in the hole. i.e. how many people actually go out and vote and in which states.  Every election, at every level swings on this.  


Never underestimate the power of the people to shoot themselves in their own foot.

I have one certainty for this election.  Come the morning after, nearly half the country is going to be ticked off.  Potentially more than half if the popular vote doesn't align with the electoral college.

Maybe some day I will dwell on that electoral college, but suffice it to say, I do believe in it, and the reasons it was implemented as part of our Constitution.  Remember one simple fact.  This Country was not founded as a pure democracy, it is a republic.  

There were, and still are, reasons to maintain the system we have, as fractured and struggling as it is.  

On the local note ...

Still hearing several names tossed around for Selectman, and also the Board of Health race.  The April elections has the potential of creating another, let us say lively, campaign season.  How much stomach the people will have for more campaigns after the national election remains to be seen.

Eat your Wheaties though, because you are going to need your strength I think to get through it.

Enjoy what you can of the weekend.  Stay safe.


1 comment:

  1. Who doesn't get excited about the local elections? It's a time to see who reaps the reward of a position, hopefully as a result of the trust earned by a candidate's actions, not political connections. It's an opportunity for voters to support a candidate who is a true 'independent' (and watch carefully, because some are obviously not,) or part of 'the machine.'

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